Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve

Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve
Different countries are taking different strategies to address the Corona pandemic. India with its meagre resources in Medical Infra, Health care Professionals and Cash has chosen a “flattening the curve” approach to slow down the spread of the pandemic. This approach basically delays the spread of the virus ensuring that large numbers don’t get sick at the same time. Prime Minister has been proactive in giving this message to the people of the country. On multiple occasions he stressed the importance of social distancing as a key measure in tackling the spread. He in fact walking the talk by through his spaced-out cabinet meetings and through Video conferences.
Proactive measures taken by India are proving to be effective in flattening the curve –
• Isolation ( for suspect cases – 14 days )
• Sec 144 or no gathering of people
• Closing of educational institutions
• Social distancing – 6 ft
• Quarantine for positive cases
• Working from home
These measures have been appreciated by the WHO and India should adhere to this strategy.

A rapid “doubling rate” can spell big trouble, as even countries with advanced healthcare systems can become overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases. Image: Drew Harris, CDC
Source -https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/


India is an early starter in imposing COVID-19 related travel restrictions. This has led to huge positives since many foreign returnees from Europe and US turned out to be carries.
1. Ban on domestic and international arrivals Mar 23rd
2. Ban on Rail travels since Mar 23rd
3. Ban on Inter state and Intra state bus travels
4. Band on public gatherings etc
By doing so India has contained people to people transmission quiet drastically. The Prime Minister more than any other world leader has used his personal image in rallying the nation and its people to come together on two occasions 1. Clapping/applauding to recognize the services of the Medical professionals 2. Lighting lamps to show solidarity, these are symbolic events to rally human energy to defeat a common enemy.
Countries which took partial steps in clamping down travel and social restrictions are faring badly – UK, US and Spain. Singapore delayed foreign travel restrictions and has now imposed ban due to rising cases. Look at the economist view of how strict government actions is slowing down virus spread.

credit : economist

The below trend for India as of 6th April,2020 which is the 14th day of lockdown ( 4000+ cases). The trajectory seems not indicating any plateau as of now, but one needs to wait. Popular wisdom is India has not yet peaked and it may flatten after 10,000 cases. The Tablighi issue has contributed to at least 30% of these cases . The other question is will increased testing also increase daily growth of cases drastically ?

Critics tried to make the social initiatives taken by the PM a laughing matter. One of the southern film stars Kamal Hasan wrote a public letter to the PM criticizing his approach in tacking COVID-19, it was a poorly drafted letter without any new ideas to share. The congress party chief also tried to poke holes in the strategy but was slammed all-round. Ramchandra Guha, Shashi Tharoor, Omar Abdullah etc are active in trying to bring down the PM but the general public are in agreement with the overall approach.
Unfortunately, due to lack of a sure cure medicine countries are trying various methods and the best non-medical intervention seems to be stay safe – practice social distancing, wash hands frequently, wear gloves and masks. Indian government has done a good job in propagating this message.
True testing in India the lowest per capita and hence critics say the true infected numbers are not showing up. If that be so we should see patients lining up hospitals with cough, flu or other symptoms. That is not happening. Assuming this theory is right we should see India’s, trajectory steepen in the coming days with increased testing. We need to wait and watch on this. My guess is it will be a steady growth to 10,000 rather than a steep jump.
Migrant labor issue is a big problem but to the credit of most Chief Ministers they have put in resources to manage the crisis well. The national capital witnessed migrant issue due to the cynical politics played by AAP, their intention of hurting UP CM Yogi Adityanath backfired since he proved to be a better administrator. He overnight cleared up all migrant labor and send them to safe houses.
The immediate concern is the Tablighi visitors who have spread across India and are causing havoc in the country. Identification, isolation and quarantining these Markaz participants and also the people they go in touch with is of utmost importance to control the pandemic in India.
The way Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Kerala,UP and Telangana which are top states in terms of number of cases handle the curtailment of the spread of virus will determine India’s success in tackling Corona. Mind you these are also the states which have many Markaz participants and these governments have launched a mammoth effort to round them up.