Yogi takes his own path

Yogi Adiyanath on March 20th became the first BJP Chief Minister of UP to complete 3 years in office. When he first took oath people felt that Modi has appointed one more of his version but with saffron robes. While the BJP/RW supporters felt it was a great choice the other side announced that UP will be finished due to the supposedly communal appointment. They prophesized that there will be communal riots, law and order break down, no development etc.

3 years on Yogi has turned to be a man of his own. While still under the shadow of PM Modi he is creating his own brand/image. His welfare and development policies, honest actions (does what he says), excellent communication skills and agility (swiftness in thinking) is definitely positioning him for the top leadership position in the future. He has made himself acceptable to the country with his all-round performance. Every decision of his has an element of surprise. Even in the case of COVID directives from the central government Yogi has modified directives in the way it suits his execution plan.

Uttar Pradesh which has the highest density of population in the country poses a serious challenge in tackling Corona. With about 970 cases as of April 18th seems to be in control of the situation. Yogi’s actions since lock down are commendable for he took care of people welfare, creating jobs through MNREG in agriculture sector and at the same time empowering police to drive law and order.

His decision last week of moving 7000 students from Kota, Rajasthan to their home state took every one by surprise. Apparently there was online activity by these students asking for help and here comes the help. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar comments looked sheepish. He should have kept quiet if he could not take his state students back. Of course there is an element of risk in Yogi’s action but he is clear in his mind that risk taken is better under the circumstances. There is as much risk of contracting the virus in a cramped hostel room.

His action of moving migrant UP labor from Anand Vihar was timely and shows his quick thinking. AAP govt in Delhi could not provide food and shelter to these labor who were left to fend for themselves. Though there was blame game it was clear APP govt did not get points for the poor handling of this issue.

His promise of delivering vegetables, milk and essentials to 23cr people at their door steps shows his ability to scale and at the same time taking stringent actions against violators shows his determination to be in control of the situation. The Moradabad incident on April 16th where there was stone pelting on health workers, 17 were arrested including Seven Women on the same day after a 3 am hearing. Don’t mess with this man. If India needs clean up it should start from UP and we have the right man there.

Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve

Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve
Different countries are taking different strategies to address the Corona pandemic. India with its meagre resources in Medical Infra, Health care Professionals and Cash has chosen a “flattening the curve” approach to slow down the spread of the pandemic. This approach basically delays the spread of the virus ensuring that large numbers don’t get sick at the same time. Prime Minister has been proactive in giving this message to the people of the country. On multiple occasions he stressed the importance of social distancing as a key measure in tackling the spread. He in fact walking the talk by through his spaced-out cabinet meetings and through Video conferences.
Proactive measures taken by India are proving to be effective in flattening the curve –
• Isolation ( for suspect cases – 14 days )
• Sec 144 or no gathering of people
• Closing of educational institutions
• Social distancing – 6 ft
• Quarantine for positive cases
• Working from home
These measures have been appreciated by the WHO and India should adhere to this strategy.

A rapid “doubling rate” can spell big trouble, as even countries with advanced healthcare systems can become overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases. Image: Drew Harris, CDC
Source -https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/


India is an early starter in imposing COVID-19 related travel restrictions. This has led to huge positives since many foreign returnees from Europe and US turned out to be carries.
1. Ban on domestic and international arrivals Mar 23rd
2. Ban on Rail travels since Mar 23rd
3. Ban on Inter state and Intra state bus travels
4. Band on public gatherings etc
By doing so India has contained people to people transmission quiet drastically. The Prime Minister more than any other world leader has used his personal image in rallying the nation and its people to come together on two occasions 1. Clapping/applauding to recognize the services of the Medical professionals 2. Lighting lamps to show solidarity, these are symbolic events to rally human energy to defeat a common enemy.
Countries which took partial steps in clamping down travel and social restrictions are faring badly – UK, US and Spain. Singapore delayed foreign travel restrictions and has now imposed ban due to rising cases. Look at the economist view of how strict government actions is slowing down virus spread.

credit : economist

The below trend for India as of 6th April,2020 which is the 14th day of lockdown ( 4000+ cases). The trajectory seems not indicating any plateau as of now, but one needs to wait. Popular wisdom is India has not yet peaked and it may flatten after 10,000 cases. The Tablighi issue has contributed to at least 30% of these cases . The other question is will increased testing also increase daily growth of cases drastically ?

Critics tried to make the social initiatives taken by the PM a laughing matter. One of the southern film stars Kamal Hasan wrote a public letter to the PM criticizing his approach in tacking COVID-19, it was a poorly drafted letter without any new ideas to share. The congress party chief also tried to poke holes in the strategy but was slammed all-round. Ramchandra Guha, Shashi Tharoor, Omar Abdullah etc are active in trying to bring down the PM but the general public are in agreement with the overall approach.
Unfortunately, due to lack of a sure cure medicine countries are trying various methods and the best non-medical intervention seems to be stay safe – practice social distancing, wash hands frequently, wear gloves and masks. Indian government has done a good job in propagating this message.
True testing in India the lowest per capita and hence critics say the true infected numbers are not showing up. If that be so we should see patients lining up hospitals with cough, flu or other symptoms. That is not happening. Assuming this theory is right we should see India’s, trajectory steepen in the coming days with increased testing. We need to wait and watch on this. My guess is it will be a steady growth to 10,000 rather than a steep jump.
Migrant labor issue is a big problem but to the credit of most Chief Ministers they have put in resources to manage the crisis well. The national capital witnessed migrant issue due to the cynical politics played by AAP, their intention of hurting UP CM Yogi Adityanath backfired since he proved to be a better administrator. He overnight cleared up all migrant labor and send them to safe houses.
The immediate concern is the Tablighi visitors who have spread across India and are causing havoc in the country. Identification, isolation and quarantining these Markaz participants and also the people they go in touch with is of utmost importance to control the pandemic in India.
The way Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Kerala,UP and Telangana which are top states in terms of number of cases handle the curtailment of the spread of virus will determine India’s success in tackling Corona. Mind you these are also the states which have many Markaz participants and these governments have launched a mammoth effort to round them up.

Leadership challenges at the time of Covid-19

The world is enveloped in COVID-19, some developed nations are at the risk of declaring themselves bankrupt. Italy, Iran and Spain for sure are in trouble with many other countries if action is not taken sooner and effectively. The deaths caused by the virus are unprecedented and unseen in recent human history. This is a terrible jolt to the humanity as a whole. The virus has spread to all countries except Antarctica.

Want the latest on any country check - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

World leaders are responding to the Corona situation based on their own understanding of the virus and its potential impact on their economies and scalability of their health care systems. Most countries are sourcing a variety of health care aids, suits, masks, gloves, hydroxychloroquine etc to respond to this challenge. It is fair to say no country is up to face this challenge on its own.

Chinese leadership as expected kept the virus a secret till the issue went out of hand. They managed to get it under control through heavy measures against their citizens, they also kept key information away from the world. The Chinese wall against information sharing shifted the problem to the rest of the world. Their public servants kept giving incorrect numbers to their own government and to the world. Transparency and China do not go together. It is a repeat of their failure in handling SARS, Bird flu epidemics. Meanwhile they let many travelers in and out of Wuhan for weeks after the virus was detected. One estimate says 5 million people moved in and out of Wuhan before they locked it down. As of April 3rd we are hearing that there are 3 more deaths related to Corona in Wuhan. China is not yet out of woods and their leadership is in trouble. There are reports that some CPC members are unhappy with Xi Jinping and some letters are doing rounds asking to unseat him. One can say the Chinese have failed their people and the world in providing leadership in managing a critical health scare.

Italy has one of the worlds best health systems but Corona showed that health care infrastructure could not meet up the challenge. Italy is currently in a lock down and is expected to open up in April some time. The northern regions of the country Lombardy etc have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country. Italy's leadership responded to the challenge very quickly by banning flights from China but experts say that the virus may already have spread within the country. it is said that Italy's testing has been meticulous. Some quotes on Italys situation -

" These measures may have been undermined however as Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health, told TIME that coronavirus could have been present in Italy before the first cases were diagnosed. Riccardo said: ‘The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time.".

"Some have argued that Italy’s high proportion of elderly residents has been a factor, with Professor Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan, quoted in The Guardian as saying: ‘Italy is a country of old people.". Italy seems to just have a lot of bad luck too.

Iranian leadership already struggling under US sanctions messed up handling the Corono out break. Iranian leadership took their own time to respond to the situation and yielded to its clerics by not locking down major religious sites which were at the epicenter of the virus. These blunders have made Iran a major exporter of the virus. Already on a weak wicket due to sanctions Iran is struggling to get out of this challenge. Instead of seeking help Iranian spiritual head Ali Khameni is busy throwing abuses at the US. Iranian leadership was indecisive at a crucial time and helped spread the contagion within the country.
Read this article on Iran -
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/03/iran-used-to-be-better-at-handling-epidemics-then-came-coronavirus-119651

India's response to the Covid-19 challenge has been quick and decisive. Though the peak is yet to be seen the measures taken by the government in declaring quarantine measures, People's curfew and a 3 week naionwide lock down seem to be working. The country's leadership deeply aware of the fragile healthcare infrastructure put emphasis on stopping the virus spreading through strict social distancing measures etc. A fine example of leadership under pressure the country's Prime Minister is rallying the population to come together to face the challenge. Though the economic impact of the lock down is devastating the more serious health care threat had to addressed first. Read this article on India's response -
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/indias-response-to-covid-19-has-been-pre-emptive-pro-active-roderico-ofrin-who/articleshow/74907802.cms


US is now the leader with the maximum number of infection cases. Its response led by President Trump is confusing. Trump hates markets going down, he measures his success with Dow and Nasdaq going up and up. He is finding it frustrating that he needs to take hard steps like lockdowns etc which will impact businesses. He continues to waver. Leadership is being provided by New York Gov Andrew Cuomo and California Gov Gavin Newsom. Both of them are taking the issue head on and steering their states towards safety. Meanwhile President Trump with his eyes on the November election perhaps for once and at a most important time of his presidency is indecisive.

The response of the Spanish leadership the Covid challenge is said to be cavalier. The leadership responded late and clumsily - read this - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis