The sins of Syed Ali Shah Geelani

J&K Separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani dis-associated  himself from the Hurriyat conference. He claimed he is quitting since there was no action on part of Hurriyat post article 370 abrogation by Indian Government and also due to Hurriyat leadership in POK busy going after ministerial positions etc. He also talked about corruption in Hurriyat. He is a life time chairman or something for the Hurriyat. 

This man hates India like nothing else. He took successive state and central governments for a ride, threatened them, called for numerous shutdowns for all sorts of things (deaths of militants, pakistani terrorists, civilians etc leading to massive damage to public property and economic disruption). More than anyone else he should be held responsible for the destruction of development, education and economy in J&K.  

He managed to carry an aura around him for a long time, the NCP, PDP, Congress crawled before him. It was ugly to see Mani Shankar Iyer and other Aman ki Asha team go and see him once in a while to make him agree for some peace talks etc. He held the whole J&K hostage with his calls for strikes.

The man's personal life is comfortable - Source - Wikepedia

"Geelani lives in Hyderpora Srinagar, Kashmir with his wife Jawahira Begum.^[ Geelani has six children- two sons Nayeem and Naseem, and four daughters Anisha, Farhat Jabeen, Zamshida, and Chamshida.Anisha and Farhat are Geelani’s daughters from his second marriage. Nayeem and his wife are both doctors who used to live and practise medicine in Rawalpindi Pakistan, but they returned to India in 2010.Geelani's younger son, Naseem works at an agricultural university in Srinagar.Geelani's grandson Izhaar is a crew member in a private airline in India. Geelani's daughter Farhat is a teacher in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and her husband is an engineer there. Geelani's other grandchildren are studying in leading schools of India. Ruwa Shah, daughter of Kashmiri separatist Altaf Ahmad Shah (SAS Geelani's son-in-law) is a journalist.His cousin Ghulam Nabi Fai is presently in London.^"

He did not like to call himself  Indian, was proud to call himself a Pakistani. He was basically a Pakistani agent in India. One wonders why successive Indian governments tolerated this man's non-sense for so long.

This man condemned killing of Osama Bin Laden by the US and held a prayer meeting for Osama in Srinagar with thousands of participants. He supported  Afzal Guru who master minded attack on Indian parliament and also supported Hafiz Sayyed of Lashkar-e-Taiba who planned the Mumbai attack. This man is pure vile.

This man's machinations had to come to an end some day and it came in the form of  Narendra Modi. Modi took a hard stance on Hurriyat since he came to power and started investigating Hurriyat for illegal foreign funds, their anti national activities and in the process put many of their leaders behind bars. Geelani was for the first time cornered. Abrogation of article 370 finished the Hurriyat. Their bluff has been called. They wanted no development, no democracy their only desire was to turn J&K into a Islamic state.

Geelani has some form of terminal cancer and is recuperating at his home in Srinagar.

Coming down heavily on Syed Geelani, BJP General Secretary Ram Madhav asked whether the separatist's action can absolve him of the "past sins".

"This man was singularly responsible for ruining the lives of thousands of Kashmiri youths and families; for pushing the Valley into terror and violence. Now resigns from Hurriyat without giving a reason. Does it absolve him of all the past sins?" he tweeted.

Covid and Vaccines - What is the story

Covid-19 pandemic is fast spreading and today we are close to 10 million globally. India has crossed  5 lakhs as of Jun 28th.  There is lot of talk about new vaccines, announcements  about phase 1 trials etc  stock prices of some pharma companies are going up with the expectation of a cure being found.

Comment from Dr. Hotez dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. - “These biotechs are putting out all these press announcements,” said Dr. Hotez. “You just need to recognize they’re writing this for their shareholders, not for the purposes of public health.”

As usual for lay men it is difficult to understand what is going on, medical jargon is confusing and we are all misled to believe some thing is coming soon to the nearby pharmacy so that we can get back to normal life.

Nothing is far from reality, the process of finding a vaccine can take up between 2 - 5 years.  WHO says 18 months with the current global effort. Typically vaccine development takes decades. (  For HIV/AIDS phase 3 trails are going on after almost 40 years. Expected to get a vaccine by 2030 that is 50 years in all for a vaccine). 

Steps involved in bringing out a vaccine - Research, Pre-clinical, Phase1, Phase2, Phase3, Building factories, Manufacturing, Approval, Distribution.  Factories need to be repurposed or built new for Covid Vaccine since the manufacturing process will be different. Did we think about packing, distributing, global approvals, global supply chain and reaching to your nearest pharmacy. 

In the case of COVID-19 it is expected that a vaccine could be found sooner since  the virus doesn't mutate significantly and exists within a family of respiratory viruses ( SARS). SARS and the new SARS-CoV-2  ( COVID-19) share about 80-90 percent of their genetic code. So the previous work on SARS will give a good foundation to build on. 

But it does not mean the virus is not mutating it will based on various conditions like population density which has direct impact on number of people infected, which gives more opportunities for the virus to mutate ( it spread from animail to human and now it is transmitting human to human).  Many strains of the virus may emerge which require different vaccines  ( you must have heard of new TB strains). So it is a highly complex challenge biologists, epidemiologists and other researcher's are handling.

About 100 vaccnies are under development for COVID-19. Some of the companies undertaking vaccine development are Moderna, Sinovac, Oxford university, Wuhan institute, CureVac( Uses mRNA method which can be mass produced but they say it is unstable) and many others. Some companies in India are also attempting.

The way that these companies are running to find a vaccine there is a chance that at least one may be successful. However It is said less than 10% percent drugs enter clinical trial stages. 

Experts say the speed at which things are moving to find a vaccine has down sides too, what if the vaccine makes it easier to catch the virus easier or even worse make the disease worse after some one is infected.

"That’s been the case for a few H.I.V. drugs and vaccines for dengue fever, because of a process called vaccine-induced enhancement, in which the body reacts unexpectedly and makes the disease more dangerous. "- NY times

For now the safest way to protect one self from the virus is to maintain distance, wear a mask and wash hands frequently. Building immunity is definitely recommended. For Indians immunity building is core in its traditional Ayurveda. It has received enough popularity and many are taking Kashayam. Daily salt water gargling to clear throat and Water vapor also helps. 

if you want to understand the nitty gritties of  vaccines,anitgens etc visit - https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/covid-vaccine-candidates-knowns-unknowns.html

If you want to know the latest about vaccines under trial stage -https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/the-four-front-runners-of-the-race-for-covid-vaccine/articleshow/76652545.cms?from=mdr

Meanwhile in India we have to handle the confusion of  Patanjali declaring Covid-19 cure, basically they seem to be immunity boosters and can address mild sore throat, cough etc. To their credit they declared that their medicine is not suitable for severe cases of pneumonia. This can be ignored for the moment.

Galwan Valley stand off - What is the real story

The current India-China standoff at Galwan is a cause of anger for most Indians. Simply put Indians hate the chinese, they consider them back stabbers and rouges. Indians are also frustated and confused with a deluge of TV and news reports and are searching to know the truth ( what happened at Galwan?). I was also confused and thought will research and put the whole thing in perspective. 

The border between India and China is divided into three regions - Eastern(1350km), Central(545km) and Western sections ( 1600 km). The Current dispute is in the Western section (Ladakh). Eastern section follows McMohan line ( it goes upto far east India - Arunachal Pradesh) and Central section covers states of Uttarakhand, Himachal pradesh. India and China have disputes on the correct demarcation of the border from Tawang in the east to Ladakh in the west. Typically the chinese walk into territory India claims as its and Indians also walk into territory China claims as its own. You might have guessed that most violations are by the chinese. Their hunger for real estate is insatiable ( Tibet, Aksai chin, Shaksgam valley, Sin kiang etc). India on the other hand takes a defence view on territorial claims, we have been claiming POK but do not really take aggressive steps in reclaiming it. Chinese are experts in taking small bits of land and adding to their kitty. They claim Taiwan, Islands in South china sea etc. So lesson for India keeping adding territory by hook or crook. Typically the disputes are in the Western and Eastern sections of the border , Middle section is relatively quiet. 

Taking a step back into history - Modern India started loosing territory since our first Independent government led by Nehru gave away so called POK. Instead of going full throttle against the pakistan promoted tribals, pashtuns and regular Pakistani army personnel he went to UN in 1948 for cease fire which permanently divided J&K. Look at China it has in its control 43,000 sqkm of India territory ( Aksai chin 38,000 sqkm and another 5000 sqkm of Shaksgham Valley given by Pakis to China in 1962). China occupied Aksai chin after the 1962 war (remember Nehru's Himalayan blunders - Strategic, Tactical, Political and Military. His total belief in Non-alingment, Hindi- Chini bhai bhai day dream, poor choice of military leadership and inept response to chinese aggresssion led to India's defeat which hurts even today. I was not born in 1962 but reading about 1962 loss pains me a lot. Nehru was down right stupid. The loss of 1962 also finished him as a leader. Most damaging of Nehru's legacy is he has put in the seed of non- aggression in Indian minds. Lal Bahadur Shastri, Indira Gandhi, Atal Vajpayee and Modi have since reversed the trend. 

Since the emergence of Modi as a nationalist leader China has been trying to get closer to India and at the same time test him. Modi's aggressive international out reach promoting India and getting closer to US was a cause of concern to the Chinese. Chinese are aware of India's aspirations to be a global power, this is a cause of irritation for them. They do not want a parallel rising power in Asia. The first test was Doklam. Doklam stand-off happened in the Eastern section in 2017 (dispute was about construction of a road in a territory claimed both by Bhuta and China). India stood up for its ally Bhutan in a 70 day stand-off. Great job by our forces and our political leadership they did not wilt under pressure.

Since Doklam China has been relentlessly trying to get unsettle India at the border with border transgressions of 187 in 2019 and 170 till date in 2020.

Come to Galwan - The Ladakh region where the current flare up is happening does not have a clear demarcation of boundary. So whoever builds infrastructure first can claim it is their territory up to that point. You again guessed it right Chinese are good at erecting tents and structures. Indians i am hearing are getting good at that. 

The current confrontation is due to the infrastructure ( roads) being built by India along the LAC. The road starts from Leh -> Dabruk - > Shyok -> to Karkoram pass. Between Shyok and Karkoram pass is called the Dault Beg Oldie road (DBO). India has been building this road on its side of LAC despite confrontations. Chinese are not comfortable with this since this road is 9KM from the LAC and they are aware this road will lead to faster deployment of Indian forces. A branch of the Dault Beg Oldie road branches of to Galwan Valley which is the point of standoff. Galwan river is the highest ridgeline which give Chinese a strategic position. Chinese want to control this area since India once its builds up its roads and other infrastructure will have a dominating position on the Aksai chin plateau. (remember China has illegally built a road from Sinkiang to Tibet through Aksai Chin which India claims) 

What happened at Galwan - We are told that on Jun 15th morning a verification party of 6 Bihar regiment went to patrol point 14 ( PP14) to see if the Chinese have disengaged from the point. Post a Jun 6th meeting between commanders on both sides the Chinese were supposed to vacate the area. Reaching there Indian team found more than a bunch of chinese and apparently agitated on seeing the Indian team. Point 14 overlooks the Galwan valley and is startegic for both parties. We discussed about the Daulat Beg oldie road which is within a stricking distance from Point 14. Chinese wanted to occupy Point 14 permanently to create trouble for Indians who are building up this road that leads to Karkoram pass. They are aware once india builds roads in this area it is getting close to the LAC and also to Aksai chin and the chinese OBOR project. 

Col. Babu and his team are well aware of the importance of Point 14 and hence went all out to force the chinese vacate the area. Remember Point 14 is on the Indian side of LAC and chinese are claiming it falls in their territory. Infact now the Chinese are claiming the entire Galwan valley is on their side of LAC. Anyway once the Indian verification team met the chinese at Point 14 all hell broke loose, the chinese attacked Indians with machetes, stones, rods. Col.Babu and his team were outnumbered and possibly unprepared for the type of warfare chinese indulged in. Chinese were prepared with Iron rods welded with spikes etc but the India team fought and pushed the chinese back. Col. Babu, Havildar Palani and Sepoy Ojha died on the spot rest of them succumbed due to injuries and hypothermia (falling into the river below). In all India lost 20 of its braves. As a professional army India declared in full details the number of its dead and the entire country mourned the loss. We salute our heros and wil not forget their sacrifice. 

The back up team which was about 2 miles away reached to support the advance party, it has hit the chinese so badly that they lost 43 personnel which is confirmed and probably more. Unconfirmed reports say about 100 Chinese died due to the ferocity of the Bihar regiment personnel. Paltan ki izzat (a concept based on regimental values, sacrifice, honour, and tradition) has been restored. All in all about 600 personnel from both sides pushed, joslted that night leading to the disaster. It is possible in the thick of night personnel from India went to the chinese side and vice versa and they were exchanged later the next day. 

China through its spokespersons is giving glib statements about how the Indian side did not stick to the Jun 6th agreements etc. No one is buying their stories.

 As far as my reading goes no world power sided with the chinese version. Infact US Secretary of state Mile Pompeo went on to call china a rogue state which it is. China's actions i am sure will drive India to hasten the projects along the LAC to get to ready to fight another day. This will be a war of attrition and a long one for which India should be prepared. Diplomacy has its place but after 20+ meetings to discuss the border countours nothing has emerged. We should however keep trying but more important strengthen our resolve to call the chinese bluff.