Explaining the Atma-nirbhar Package

Post the Modi government announcement of the mother of all Stimulus there has been a lot of debate on its impact. Critics broadly are questioning the demand side of the stimulus, they want the government to out money in the hands of the consumer to increase demand in the market. They believe the liquidity measure only will be triggering the supply side. However the government is looking for a more sustainable recovery where the economic cycle kicks off, employment generation kicks up and both supply and demand stabilize in the medium term ( may be 2 quarters). Obviously comparisons are being made with developed countries like in the US, Canada, France etc where the government is doing cash transfers to tax payers accounts ( one or two months salaries). It is comparing apples and oranges given population size, wealth of the nation, its economy etc. I think the Modi government has a chosen a more sustainable method to kick start the economy taking into consideration fiscal deficit, inflation etc.

Some of the measures announced are transformative in nature and I am sure they will soon be made into laws ( APMC, Labor, Privatization across sectors, Commercial coal mining etc).

What it means -


1. For MSMEs ( micro, small, medium enterprises) - 3 lakh crores - MSMEs employ 11 crore people and have a GDP share of approximately 29 per cent – This sector is the economic back bone of the country – Ex: Fabrication units/shops, Small food manufacturing units, etc . 45 Lakh MSME units will benefit from this move. (for comparison IT sector employs only about 50+ Lakhs directly and another 1 crore indirectly) – If Medium, Micro sectors are impacted India will be in trouble.

INR 3 lakh Crore Collateral free loans ( that means no need of any pledging to get the loan), only condition it should be a running company. Also 50k crore equity infusion through fund of funds Much needed intervention and bold step by the govt in giving collateral free loans. (Political opposition will not talk about these collateral free loans)

2.NBFCS, HFC’s, MFIs - Rs 30,000 crore.

Means - The government will buy debt papers issued by NBFCs, MFIs and HFCs. These papers will be fully guaranteed by the government of India. This will give market confidence.

30K Crore - To all NBFCs, Housing finance and Micro finance - Relief for this stressed sector in the form of liquidity. They can start lending again and market cycle will start

3. Power companies ( DISCOMS) Revenues have dropped for DISCOMS due to drop in demand for these companies. 90K crore will be made available to DISCOMS against their receivables ( means the bills you have to pay, industries and commercial establishments have to pay to DISCOMS). 90 k Crore Excellent move to ensure cash flow to the DISCOMS. Else they will be bankrupt. DISCOMS already owe 1 Lakh crore to generation companies. Power sector is screwed up because of low tariffs, leakages and operational inefficiencies

4.Global tenders of up to 200 crores will not be allowed. To all Indian companies – They will not face competition from MNCs for up to USD 30 Mil dollars tenders by Govt of India – Make in India drive Policy intervention. Great move for Indian companies - no international competition

5.MNREGA Additional amount of 40k Crore to boost rural employment. This is in addition to the 60k crore announced in the budget. Great move. This is almost cash in the hands of the rural population. About 200 Rs/ Day is the wage

6. Agriculture, Animal husbandry, Fisheries, Dairy- For setting up Cold storage/ chains to preserve harvested food 1 Lakh Crore. India has very poor post-harvest infrastructure leading to wastage of food and farmers selling their produce dirt cheap. Cold storages will help in storage for longer periods

7.NBFCs, HFCs, MFIs Rs 45,000 liquidity infusion – Partial guarantee scheme which will cover commercial papers and borrowings.
Partial guarantee means - The first 20 percent loss will be borne by the government 45 K Crore NBFCs can lend to businesses and market cycle will start

8. TDS/TCS Rs 50,000 cr relief on TDS/TCS – more cash in tax payers hands. Payment for contract, professional fees, interest, rent, dividend, commission, brokerage, etc. will be eligible for reduced rate of TDS. Benefit - More money in the hands of tax payers

9. Kisan Credit Additional 2 lakh crore vis kisan credit cards to enable credit for farmers. Benefits farmers

10. APMC reform very important – farmers can now sell their produce wherever they want – they are now victims of traders who lower the prices when they buy from farmers. Higher price realization for farmers


Over and above all the above the Government has brought several long-term reform measures such as Commercial coal mining ( India imports coal despite having large coal deposits), labour reforms ( already initiated by BJP ruled states MP, Karnatak, Gujarat), and opening up of many other sectors for private players ( space etc). FDI in defence manufacturing increased from 49% to 74%.
While some analysts were not happy with the stimulus and the approach taken by the government others were having a favorable opinion - “The package largely meets our expectations. However, we believe the government will need to step in again to revive growth through demand stimulus, as well as measures to support the financial sector “ – Nomura - https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/how-potent-is-indias-economic-vaccine-explained/1963246/.

The package is announced the execution of the reforms will bear the results, for that we will have to wait.

Clean up in the Valley and uncertainity in Pak

After the killing of Riyaz Naikoo,head of Hizbul in J&K, Pakistan is back to its desperate ways. It has formed a new organization called TRF - "The Resistance Front " to bring all operating terror groups in the valley under one umbrella to fight Indian forces. TRF seems to be a non starter since there are know ideological differences between terror groups. We should watch out how TRF takes shape in the days to come. Meanwhile Saifullah Mir aka Ghazi Haider, 26, is Hizbul’s new leader and face of terror in Kashmir. His days i am sure are numbered given Indian army's current philosophy of eliminating all terror leadership.

Meanwhile India is inflicting continuous pain on Pakistan through its soft and hard tactics. Indian forces are hitting hard across the LOC, DD News and AIR started including PoK weather forecast in their report, Ministry of external affairs lodging a strong protest about the Pak SC order of conducting elections in Gilgit Baltistan (India has always stated that the entire Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, including areas of Gilgit-Baltistan, are an integral part of India and that Islamabad should immediately vacate the areas under its illegal occupation), there is also unconfirmed news that India has reduced the water flow into Pakistan.

Due to the rapid response of the Indian forces in eliminating terrorists after the Handwara incident Paksitan is on high alert and is flying sorties along the LOC and over Islamabad expecting a Balakot re-run. Imran Khan government is struggling to handle the Indian firmness. In the previous regimes after an attack there were calls for "discussions" euphemism for let this pass too.

Under Modi's regime there has been no confusion with respect to handling Pakistan. After the initial bonhomie with Nawaz Sharief the doctrine has been to give it back to Pakistan.

If one looks at the cleaning up Modi government has done over the past 5 years -

1.Burhan wani, Riyaz Naikoo, Zakir Musa and mnay others eliminated, also all top leadership across all terror groups have been identified and eliminated
2.Surgical strikes and Balakot Airstrike
3.Some thing that many thought was sacred - A370, 35A removed
4.Repealing all laws manufactured by NC and PDP favoring valley Sunni Muslims at the cost of the rest of the population
5.Addressing the nefarious design of PDP to change the demography in Jammu region
6.Taking control of Hindu shrines in the state
7.Takign control of all govt institutions which were corrupt and compromised

Interesting times are ahead with rumour in the air about POK capture on the cards. It is said that Pakis are willing to hand over large portions of Gilgit Baltistan to China which provides access to Gwadar port. India will be alert to any such surrender of its land to china. Watch this space for more on this subject.

Hizbul Mujahideen hit hard

There is a sense of relief among the security establishment after Riyaz Naikoo the head of Hizbul Mujahideen in India was killed by the forces. He was killed in his native village Beighbora when he went to visit his parents. Armed forces surrounded the village and got him after a standoff. He is said to be behind multiple killings of police, migrant labor and civilians. It is believed that Riyaz's whereabouts was given away by competing unit known as TRF (The resistance front).

Riyaz Naikoo was a popular terrorist leader in the Valley and was a magnet in attracting youth. Similar to Burhan Wani he was promoting gun culture and was hurting Indian forces. Hence it was important that he be arrested or eliminated. This is a body blow to the Hizb agenda in the Valley. Hizb earlier lost Burhan Wani, Mohammed Itoo who were leading this terror outfit in India.

The Hizbul Mujahideen or HM,was formed in 1989. It was founded by Muhammad Ahsan Dar who hails from the valley/ It is said that it is the military wing of Jammat-e-islami which has its head quarters in Pakistan. It has presence in the valley since 1989 and is one of the oldest terror groups in Jammu and Kashmir. The Hizb played a key role in ensuring that pandits do not return to the valley calling them Hindu agents.The group is currently headed by the wicked Syed Salahuddin who is based in Paksitan (POK).

Syed Salahuddin who hails from the budgam in the Kashmir valley contested as an MLA and lost and later took up militancy in 1989. He fights for integration on JK with Paksitan. He operates out of POK and has vicious hatred towards India. He frequently travels to Lahore and other cities in Pakistan and addresses large gatherings. Pakistan calls him a "freedom fighter ".

Syed Salahuddin's family happily lives in Soibugh, Budgum. He has five sons and 2 daughters. 4 of his sons are government employees. It is said he is in touch with his family through various NGOs etc.

"In 2017 the US Department of State has designated Syed Salahuddin, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist which imposes sanctions on foreign persons who have committed, or pose a significant risk of committing, acts of terrorism that threaten the security of U.S. nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States. As a consequence of this designation, U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with Salahuddin and all of Salahuddin's property and interests in property subject to United States jurisdiction are blocked "

With the elimination of Riyaz Nikoo Hizb temporarily is down. The killing of Col. Ashutosh, Major Anuj Sood, Naik Rakesh Kumar, Lance Naik Dinesh Singh and Sub-Inspector of Jammu and Kashmir Police Shakeel Qazi was a blow to the forces. Response has been strong and immediate which should send message to all militants who are crossing the border. Jai Hind.

Targettig of Hindu Vegetable vendors

The ongoing COVID is creating new social issues. The most recent being targeting Hindu vegetable vendors for having planted saffron flags (bhagwa) on their selling carts. These vendors are doing a very practical thing of ensuring the buyers identify them as different. These vendors are aware of the happenings around and are using the flag as a competitive advantage. There may be ethical issues in this but that is for another day. The current issue is a result of news about Tablighis and some Muslim vendors spitting on vegetables, fruits and currency with an alleged purpose of infecting the larger society. Some of these may be partially true, blown out of proportion etc but some of these things did happen. Attacks and spitting on police forces in mohallahs is also adding weight to the story. There is enough evidence of these attacks on social media.

Lots of social media activity on the above is suddenly bringing awareness all around and Hindu vendors obviously being sensitive to the issue are trying to differentiate themselves. The issue came into light when police in Nizamabad( Telangana) removed flags from Hindu vendors and also booked cases. The local MP came out strongly and defended the rights of the vendors to plant a bhagwa since it is their belief. He rightly pointed out that they are protected under article 25 of the constitution which gives right to profess one's beliefs. We have seen many such instances in other states and it is now spreading fast across. It is no one's case that this should happen. It is simply the case of lack of leadership in the Muslim community. Not a soul condemned the behavior of the Tablighis.

Media all over is questioning Hindu vendors since we are "secular" state. But no one is coming forward to ask the hard questions to the Muslim leadership on the behavior of the Tablighis, in spreading the virus and attacking doctors and nurses. Behavior of the some vendors and distribution of such videos on social media with a view to scare certain sections of the population. The police in their eagerness and lack of understanding of the law are harassing the Hindu vendors and threatening to file cases.

The current situation should be seen as a continuation of the events since article 370, CAA, JNU, Shaheen bagh, Delhi riots, Tablighi, attacking hindus in Gulf, etc. There is a clear attempt to malign India, make it look bad in the international community and destabilize.

Yogi takes his own path

Yogi Adiyanath on March 20th became the first BJP Chief Minister of UP to complete 3 years in office. When he first took oath people felt that Modi has appointed one more of his version but with saffron robes. While the BJP/RW supporters felt it was a great choice the other side announced that UP will be finished due to the supposedly communal appointment. They prophesized that there will be communal riots, law and order break down, no development etc.

3 years on Yogi has turned to be a man of his own. While still under the shadow of PM Modi he is creating his own brand/image. His welfare and development policies, honest actions (does what he says), excellent communication skills and agility (swiftness in thinking) is definitely positioning him for the top leadership position in the future. He has made himself acceptable to the country with his all-round performance. Every decision of his has an element of surprise. Even in the case of COVID directives from the central government Yogi has modified directives in the way it suits his execution plan.

Uttar Pradesh which has the highest density of population in the country poses a serious challenge in tackling Corona. With about 970 cases as of April 18th seems to be in control of the situation. Yogi’s actions since lock down are commendable for he took care of people welfare, creating jobs through MNREG in agriculture sector and at the same time empowering police to drive law and order.

His decision last week of moving 7000 students from Kota, Rajasthan to their home state took every one by surprise. Apparently there was online activity by these students asking for help and here comes the help. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar comments looked sheepish. He should have kept quiet if he could not take his state students back. Of course there is an element of risk in Yogi’s action but he is clear in his mind that risk taken is better under the circumstances. There is as much risk of contracting the virus in a cramped hostel room.

His action of moving migrant UP labor from Anand Vihar was timely and shows his quick thinking. AAP govt in Delhi could not provide food and shelter to these labor who were left to fend for themselves. Though there was blame game it was clear APP govt did not get points for the poor handling of this issue.

His promise of delivering vegetables, milk and essentials to 23cr people at their door steps shows his ability to scale and at the same time taking stringent actions against violators shows his determination to be in control of the situation. The Moradabad incident on April 16th where there was stone pelting on health workers, 17 were arrested including Seven Women on the same day after a 3 am hearing. Don’t mess with this man. If India needs clean up it should start from UP and we have the right man there.

Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve

Is India flattening the COVID-19 curve
Different countries are taking different strategies to address the Corona pandemic. India with its meagre resources in Medical Infra, Health care Professionals and Cash has chosen a “flattening the curve” approach to slow down the spread of the pandemic. This approach basically delays the spread of the virus ensuring that large numbers don’t get sick at the same time. Prime Minister has been proactive in giving this message to the people of the country. On multiple occasions he stressed the importance of social distancing as a key measure in tackling the spread. He in fact walking the talk by through his spaced-out cabinet meetings and through Video conferences.
Proactive measures taken by India are proving to be effective in flattening the curve –
• Isolation ( for suspect cases – 14 days )
• Sec 144 or no gathering of people
• Closing of educational institutions
• Social distancing – 6 ft
• Quarantine for positive cases
• Working from home
These measures have been appreciated by the WHO and India should adhere to this strategy.

A rapid “doubling rate” can spell big trouble, as even countries with advanced healthcare systems can become overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases. Image: Drew Harris, CDC
Source -https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/


India is an early starter in imposing COVID-19 related travel restrictions. This has led to huge positives since many foreign returnees from Europe and US turned out to be carries.
1. Ban on domestic and international arrivals Mar 23rd
2. Ban on Rail travels since Mar 23rd
3. Ban on Inter state and Intra state bus travels
4. Band on public gatherings etc
By doing so India has contained people to people transmission quiet drastically. The Prime Minister more than any other world leader has used his personal image in rallying the nation and its people to come together on two occasions 1. Clapping/applauding to recognize the services of the Medical professionals 2. Lighting lamps to show solidarity, these are symbolic events to rally human energy to defeat a common enemy.
Countries which took partial steps in clamping down travel and social restrictions are faring badly – UK, US and Spain. Singapore delayed foreign travel restrictions and has now imposed ban due to rising cases. Look at the economist view of how strict government actions is slowing down virus spread.

credit : economist

The below trend for India as of 6th April,2020 which is the 14th day of lockdown ( 4000+ cases). The trajectory seems not indicating any plateau as of now, but one needs to wait. Popular wisdom is India has not yet peaked and it may flatten after 10,000 cases. The Tablighi issue has contributed to at least 30% of these cases . The other question is will increased testing also increase daily growth of cases drastically ?

Critics tried to make the social initiatives taken by the PM a laughing matter. One of the southern film stars Kamal Hasan wrote a public letter to the PM criticizing his approach in tacking COVID-19, it was a poorly drafted letter without any new ideas to share. The congress party chief also tried to poke holes in the strategy but was slammed all-round. Ramchandra Guha, Shashi Tharoor, Omar Abdullah etc are active in trying to bring down the PM but the general public are in agreement with the overall approach.
Unfortunately, due to lack of a sure cure medicine countries are trying various methods and the best non-medical intervention seems to be stay safe – practice social distancing, wash hands frequently, wear gloves and masks. Indian government has done a good job in propagating this message.
True testing in India the lowest per capita and hence critics say the true infected numbers are not showing up. If that be so we should see patients lining up hospitals with cough, flu or other symptoms. That is not happening. Assuming this theory is right we should see India’s, trajectory steepen in the coming days with increased testing. We need to wait and watch on this. My guess is it will be a steady growth to 10,000 rather than a steep jump.
Migrant labor issue is a big problem but to the credit of most Chief Ministers they have put in resources to manage the crisis well. The national capital witnessed migrant issue due to the cynical politics played by AAP, their intention of hurting UP CM Yogi Adityanath backfired since he proved to be a better administrator. He overnight cleared up all migrant labor and send them to safe houses.
The immediate concern is the Tablighi visitors who have spread across India and are causing havoc in the country. Identification, isolation and quarantining these Markaz participants and also the people they go in touch with is of utmost importance to control the pandemic in India.
The way Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Kerala,UP and Telangana which are top states in terms of number of cases handle the curtailment of the spread of virus will determine India’s success in tackling Corona. Mind you these are also the states which have many Markaz participants and these governments have launched a mammoth effort to round them up.

Leadership challenges at the time of Covid-19

The world is enveloped in COVID-19, some developed nations are at the risk of declaring themselves bankrupt. Italy, Iran and Spain for sure are in trouble with many other countries if action is not taken sooner and effectively. The deaths caused by the virus are unprecedented and unseen in recent human history. This is a terrible jolt to the humanity as a whole. The virus has spread to all countries except Antarctica.

Want the latest on any country check - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

World leaders are responding to the Corona situation based on their own understanding of the virus and its potential impact on their economies and scalability of their health care systems. Most countries are sourcing a variety of health care aids, suits, masks, gloves, hydroxychloroquine etc to respond to this challenge. It is fair to say no country is up to face this challenge on its own.

Chinese leadership as expected kept the virus a secret till the issue went out of hand. They managed to get it under control through heavy measures against their citizens, they also kept key information away from the world. The Chinese wall against information sharing shifted the problem to the rest of the world. Their public servants kept giving incorrect numbers to their own government and to the world. Transparency and China do not go together. It is a repeat of their failure in handling SARS, Bird flu epidemics. Meanwhile they let many travelers in and out of Wuhan for weeks after the virus was detected. One estimate says 5 million people moved in and out of Wuhan before they locked it down. As of April 3rd we are hearing that there are 3 more deaths related to Corona in Wuhan. China is not yet out of woods and their leadership is in trouble. There are reports that some CPC members are unhappy with Xi Jinping and some letters are doing rounds asking to unseat him. One can say the Chinese have failed their people and the world in providing leadership in managing a critical health scare.

Italy has one of the worlds best health systems but Corona showed that health care infrastructure could not meet up the challenge. Italy is currently in a lock down and is expected to open up in April some time. The northern regions of the country Lombardy etc have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country. Italy's leadership responded to the challenge very quickly by banning flights from China but experts say that the virus may already have spread within the country. it is said that Italy's testing has been meticulous. Some quotes on Italys situation -

" These measures may have been undermined however as Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health, told TIME that coronavirus could have been present in Italy before the first cases were diagnosed. Riccardo said: ‘The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time.".

"Some have argued that Italy’s high proportion of elderly residents has been a factor, with Professor Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan, quoted in The Guardian as saying: ‘Italy is a country of old people.". Italy seems to just have a lot of bad luck too.

Iranian leadership already struggling under US sanctions messed up handling the Corono out break. Iranian leadership took their own time to respond to the situation and yielded to its clerics by not locking down major religious sites which were at the epicenter of the virus. These blunders have made Iran a major exporter of the virus. Already on a weak wicket due to sanctions Iran is struggling to get out of this challenge. Instead of seeking help Iranian spiritual head Ali Khameni is busy throwing abuses at the US. Iranian leadership was indecisive at a crucial time and helped spread the contagion within the country.
Read this article on Iran -
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/03/iran-used-to-be-better-at-handling-epidemics-then-came-coronavirus-119651

India's response to the Covid-19 challenge has been quick and decisive. Though the peak is yet to be seen the measures taken by the government in declaring quarantine measures, People's curfew and a 3 week naionwide lock down seem to be working. The country's leadership deeply aware of the fragile healthcare infrastructure put emphasis on stopping the virus spreading through strict social distancing measures etc. A fine example of leadership under pressure the country's Prime Minister is rallying the population to come together to face the challenge. Though the economic impact of the lock down is devastating the more serious health care threat had to addressed first. Read this article on India's response -
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/indias-response-to-covid-19-has-been-pre-emptive-pro-active-roderico-ofrin-who/articleshow/74907802.cms


US is now the leader with the maximum number of infection cases. Its response led by President Trump is confusing. Trump hates markets going down, he measures his success with Dow and Nasdaq going up and up. He is finding it frustrating that he needs to take hard steps like lockdowns etc which will impact businesses. He continues to waver. Leadership is being provided by New York Gov Andrew Cuomo and California Gov Gavin Newsom. Both of them are taking the issue head on and steering their states towards safety. Meanwhile President Trump with his eyes on the November election perhaps for once and at a most important time of his presidency is indecisive.

The response of the Spanish leadership the Covid challenge is said to be cavalier. The leadership responded late and clumsily - read this - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis